Some are concerned that by easing lockdown restrictions countries will face a new wave of infections.
However, according to a new modelling study, this can be averted by simple measures
Although there is no indication of a COVID-19 epidemic coming in waves, being sceptical may help avoid a national crisis.
People’s conduct has a serious effect on averting potential spikes or a second wave of coronavirus infections.
Simple interventions such as hand hygiene, social distancing, and wearing a face mask in crowded and enclosed public places could expel the idea of lockdowns in future.
This modelling study also shows that lockdowns should stay in place for two months to reach a peak of COVID-19 infections and then restrictions must be lifted gradually to lower a second wave risk.
Countries that forced a strict lockdown to reduce the SARS-CoV-2 transmission are now easing restrictions.
However, the process is sensitive as there is a fine line between saving the economy and fear of a second wave which might crush health care systems.
The projection model was based on splitting the population into seven scenarios: susceptible, quarantined, exposed, infectious not detected, reported infectious and confined, recovered, and dead.
The benefits of hand washing and other interventions such as social distancing have been already shown.
This study aimed to measure these behavioural interventions as infection prevention and control plans.
Their results show that as opposed to hasty deconfinement, gradually allowing life to come back to normal will reduce the infections rate and number of deaths.
Professor Rodó said:
“If we manage to reduce transmission rate by 30% through the use of face masks, hand hygiene and social distancing, we can considerably reduce the magnitude of the next wave.
Reducing transmission rate by 50% could avoid it completely.”
The results also show that even if countries don’t use coronavirus test and trace services, social empowerment like hand hygiene, social distancing, and wearing a face mask, is pivotal in preventing the spread of viruses.
Moreover, simulation results show that the longer people are immune from the disease the longer between each spike of the infection.